This Year Brought a lot of Difficult Times for the Whisky Industry

The global whisky industry is having anything but a quiet winter. Scotch, in particular, is taking heavy hits from a mix of trade restrictions, softening demand, and rising costs. These are developments both enthusiasts and producers will want to watch closely.

The United States is a key export market for Scotch whisky. Import tariffs introduced under the Trump administration are adding 10% to costs for American importers, which has already noticeably slowed sales.

The BBC reports that another blow could land next spring: the reintroduction of an additional 25% tariff on single malt whiskies, unless a trade deal is reached in time.

Single malts are especially important for the U.S. market, these are higher-margin bottles with a strong reputation among American whisky drinkers. Extra duties don’t just push up prices; they also threaten the position of Scottish distilleries in the premium segment.

Globally, consumer spending is under strain due to economic uncertainty, higher taxes, and rising costs. Tougher regulations, packaging rules among them, are also driving production expenses higher.

China stands out. Exports of Scotch whisky to China fell by a striking 31% last year, dropping the country from fifth to tenth place among key markets. That’s a major shift in a short time, especially given China’s earlier growth potential.

On paper, the damage still looks manageable. In the first half of this year, the value of Scotch exports rose by 1% to £2.5 billion. At the same time, export volumes fell by nearly 4%. That points to higher prices, not more bottles sold.

What’s more, the full impact of U.S. tariffs may only become clear later. Many distilleries shipped extra stock to the U.S. in advance to temporarily sidestep the duties. As those inventories run down, we’ll see how sharply the tariffs really bite into sales figures.

For consumers, this could eventually mean higher prices, tighter availability, and possibly the disappearance of certain bottlings. For the industry, it’s a time of adjustment, restructuring, and, above all, waiting to see what comes next.

One thing is clear: time will tell how the situation truly shakes out.