Production Pauses in Whiskey Shouldn't Spark Panic: 'Not a Crisis Signal'

Wednesday, 25 February 2026 at 10:15Forbes

Jack Daniels Old NO 7 Tennessee Whiskey truck with casks

According to recent reports, the American whiskey industry is under pressure, much like the whisky market worldwide. A dip in demand, growing inventories, and talk of production slowdowns all feed the narrative of a sector in trouble. The American Whiskey Association says that picture is inaccurate—we’re simply looking at a cycle.

In a conversation with Forbes, Michael Bilello, chairman of the American Whiskey Association, argues that claims of a major crisis are misplaced. In his view, we’re in a trough that’s just part of a normal market cycle.

Accounting errors in whiskey sales

In the interview, Bilello says sales figures are too incomplete to paint an accurate picture. Reports cite 30 million cases of whiskey and bourbon sold in a year, but those counts contain significant calculation errors.

The AWA chair estimates the global market for American whiskey at between 60 and 62 million cases.

He also notes that the standard math around revenue per barrel doesn’t hold up.

'Barrel yield varies significantly based on entry proof, bottling proof, angel’s share loss, maturation length, and product mix. The “23 cases per barrel” shorthand is a rough estimate, not a fixed rule.'

- Michael Bilello

As a result, you can’t simply compare the number of liters bottled to sales figures, which causes many of the prevailing calculations to fall apart.

Production pauses aren’t a reason to worry about whiskey

Bilello has spoken with a range of industry players. His conclusion: some of today’s signals are being misread. The media is turning softer numbers into a crisis that isn’t necessarily there.

Reported figures on maturing whiskey stocks are also being cited, but he says there’s no way to definitively state how much whiskey is aging in the United States.

The Kentucky Distillers’ Association estimates 16 million barrels in Kentucky, but what that implies for the entire United States remains unclear.

'There are credible Kentucky-specific data points, but once you move beyond Kentucky, the data becomes fragmented across producers, states, and categories, and it’s not tracked in a consistent, apples-to-apples way.'

- Michael Bilello

Market dip is normalization, not decline

According to the AWA, the sector is in a multi-year normalization phase. Consumers shouldn’t expect shortages. In fact, what’s happening now could ultimately lead to more premium whiskey and older age statements. The whiskey in cask is getting older—and therefore rarer.

Bilello did not specifically address inflation in the interview, even though it also plays a role in the global downward trend.

The industry’s core message is clear: this isn’t a collapsing whiskey business, but a mature market adapting to changing conditions and leaning into international growth.

You can read the full interview with Bilello on Forbes. Explore more about the United States and its water of life via this page.